First Post-Debate Poll!

We have our first post-debate poll! It's only Iowa, but it's something. Before we get into its results, let's first look at the Real Clear Politics Iowa average before this poll. In parenthesis, I'll put what their most recent, pre-debate poll said (done on 7/29, from Gravis).

1. Trump--20.3 (last poll had him at 31)
2. Walker--18.7 (last poll had him at 15)
3. Bush--9.7 (10)
4. Carson--7.0 (5)
5. Huckabee--6.3 (6)
6. Cruz--5.7 (6)
7. Rubio, Jindal--4.0 (3, 7)
9. Paul--3.7 (1)
10. Kasich--3.0 (5)
11. Fiorina, Perry--2.7 (4, 2)
13. Santorum--2.0 (3)
14. Christie--1.3 (1)
15. Graham--0.7 (1)

Okay, and now the results from today's post-debate Iowa poll from Public Policy Polling.

1. Trump--19

2. Carson--12
3. Walker--12
4. Bush--11
5. Fiorina--10
6. Cruz--9
7. Huckabee, Rubio--6
9. Kasich, Paul--3
11. Jindal, Perry, Santorum--2
14. Christie--1
15-17. Gilmore, Graham, Pataki less than 1%

Breakdown:

• Trump has started to plummet back to Earth. From 31 to 19 is a huge fall.
• Carson and Fiorina are the trendiest candidates, thanks to their applauded debate performances (I still can't believe Carson's was applauded). Carson was already looking solid in Iowa with his fourth place, 7-point average. His 12 this poll, however, catches Scott Walker for second place behind Trump and even outdoes Bush's 11. Coming off a 5 in the Gravis Poll, Carson has to feel really, really good. 
• Fiorina's kiddie table dominance took her from 4 in the last poll to 10 in this one. She'll be solidly inside the Iowa top ten now, but her campaign, like the rest of us, eagerly awaits the first post-debate national poll to see if she can do the same nationally.
• The Cruz march continues. With his 9 (following a 4 then a 6 in the last two Iowa polls), he'll pass 2008 winner Huckabee in the Iowa average to get into the its five.
• Most disappointed? Marco Rubio. Rubio was an almost consensus winner of Thursday's debate. To only score 6 points--when he was double digits in April and May--has to hurt. His RCP average will barely climb from its lowly 4. If Iowa didn't respond to him after that debate, there's a chance he needs to more strongly consider focusing more on South Carolina and Florida. If Iowa has its heart set on Carson/Walker/Cruz, with Bush ready to spend a ton of money there to finish in the top three, he might want to redirect his funds instead of pouring them into a hopeless cause.
• Also disappointed: Walker (it's his lowest Iowa support since January, and the last PPP poll had him at 23 in April, nearly double this August haul), Huckabee (he's no longer Iowa's favorite evangelical and is stuck at 6 or 7 in the last four polls), Kasich (the debate won over moderates but did not play well in Iowa), Jindal (he had 7 in the Gravis poll, which hinted at him finally getting traction in a state that should be perfect for him, but then this 2 put an end to that thought), and Paul (three points for a guy who once led the Iowa polls. THREE!)
• Favorability splits. Carson dominates again at a 69/10 favorable/unfavorable for a +59. Rubio second at +51. Walker, Huckabee, and Fiorina all have net favorables in the 40s. Of the contenders, the bottom three are Trump (46/40 for +6), Christie (34/44 for -10), and Rand Paul (31/45 for -14).

Final analysis:

• At this point, the race for Iowa looks like a four person race between Walker, Carson, Cruz, and either Huckabee or a possible Santorum/Jindal/Perry late pop that displaces Huckabee, which can't be ruled out. I'd still give the edge to Walker, but Carson and Cruz have much better momentum. Since I still think voters ultimately don't give Carson the nuclear codes, I'd say Cruz is Walker's biggest competition.
• Bush is getting way too much company up there for his liking. If someone offered him a third place Iowa finish right now, he'd take it and run. Anything less and it'd be embarrassing for the supposed front-runner, but a third place finished probably translates to a New Hampshire victory.
• Fiorina could well hit double digits nationally as well. Watch your back, Chris Christie. I think you're about to fall out of the top ten. (Now if we can just get a national poll already!)